Tuesday, April 13, 2010
The Telegraph: Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, said Eastern Europe has borrowed $1.7 trillion abroad, much on short-term maturities. It must repay or roll over $400bn this year, equal to a third of the region's GDP. Good luck. The credit window has slammed shut.
In Poland, 60pc of mortgages are in Swiss francs. The zloty has just halved against the franc. Hungary, the Balkans, the Baltics, and Ukraine are all suffering variants of this story. As an act of collective folly by lenders and borrowers it matches America's sub-prime debacle. There is a crucial difference, however. European banks are on the hook for both. US banks are not.
Almost all East bloc debts are owed to West Europe, especially Austrian, Swedish, Greek, Italian, and Belgian banks. En plus, Europeans account for an astonishing 74pc of the entire $4.9 trillion portfolio of loans to emerging markets.
They are five times more exposed to this latest bust than American or Japanese banks, and they are 50pc more leveraged (IMF data).
Spain is up to its neck in Latin America, which has belatedly joined the slump (Mexico's car output fell 51pc in January, and Brazil lost 650,000 jobs in one month). Britain and Switzerland are up to their necks in Asia.
Whether it takes months, or just weeks, the world is going to discover that Europe's financial system is sunk, and that there is no EU Federal Reserve yet ready to act as a lender of last resort or to flood the markets with emergency stimulus.
Labels:economy Collapse Meltdown Eastern Europe
MARC FABER NEWS
Dr. Doom? Marc Faber Sees Stock Buying Opportunity
The dean of doom, Marc Faber, told CNBC on Tuesday that a variety of asset classes—including equities—may be worth buying for short-term gains. In the midst of market volatility on concerns over Federal Reserve tapering, he said, "Treasury bonds ...
Marc Faber aka Dr. Doom: S&P 500 Index Could Fall 20% To 30% Easily
Dr Doom warns stocks are oversold but S&P readies for another drop
Marc Faber Forecasts 30% Stock Market Crash, Says Buy Gold
The Market Oracle
The Fed's 'tapering' comments have ramped up market volatilaty and Faber gives some advice for short and long-term strategies. For example: ""The best course of action is to actually not buy anything, but rather to reduce positions on a rebound," Faber ...
Marc Faber: Bull in the short term, bear in the long term
... so perhaps it's best left to someone who has historically said “sell.” Marc Faber, author of the ”The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report,” and often called “Dr. Doom” because of his bearish sentiment, says there are buying opportunities — at least in the ...
Marc Faber: Gold a possible canary in the deflation coalmine
Here's what Marc Faber, editor of Gloom Boom Doom report told MarketWatch in an email. “Maybe gold is signaling a deflationary collapse of all asset prices. If this were indeed the case I suppose I would rather own gold than government bonds, high ...
MARC FABER: The Way Things Are Going, Bernanke Will Have To Give Us 96 ...
"Incredibly Bad Sentiment" Makes Gold & Bonds a Buy Says Marc Faber, as All ...
“Sentiment on Gold and Bonds Incredibly Negative” – Marc Faber Predicts ...
Marc Faber Sees Further Downside
China's factory output weakened to a 9-month low today, and financials saw a huge sell-off today, with the FM traders; and The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report's Marc Faber, shares his economic outlook. There's plenty of room for the stock market to decline ...
Marc Faber: More S&P downside, commodities 'horrible'…except gold
Marc Faber says 'thanks' to Bernanke
[An earlier version of this blog mistakenly attributed the comments to Marc Faber's blog. The original comments were made in an interview with Barron's on June 1. The comments were picked up Tuesday in a tracking blog that aggregates Faber's public ...
Dr. Doom Marc Faber: Don't Bet on New Market Highs
Faber said large cap stocks like McDonald's, Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble and Wal-Mart "have most likely peaked." However, he thinks there are still stocks that show strength that could continue to appreciate "because all the money flows into fewer and ...
Marc Faber Is Glad He Owned Stocks, Even As He Warned Everyone Of Stock ...
"People with assets are all doomed, because prices are grossly inflated globally for stocks, bonds, and collectibles," says the investment advisor in a new interview published in this week's Barron's. But Faber is the first to admit that at least the ...
Marc Faber notes liquidity squeeze depressing stocks but still buying gold
Famously contrarian in his approach, Dr. Faber is usually out of step with Wall Street but has an excellent reputation for calling the major market turns. He does not say he is shorting equities, though he notes emerging market equities and currencies ...