Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Exploding debt threatens America


John Taylor

Published: May 26 2009 20:48 | Last updated: May 26 2009 20:48

Standard and Poor’s decision to downgrade its outlook for British sovereign debt from “stable” to “negative” should be a wake-up call for the US Congress and administration. Let us hope they wake up.

Under President Barack Obama’s budget plan, the federal debt is exploding. To be precise, it is rising – and will continue to rise – much faster than gross domestic product, a measure of America’s ability to service it. The federal debt was equivalent to 41 per cent of GDP at the end of 2008; the Congressional Budget Office projects it will increase to 82 per cent of GDP in 10 years. With no change in policy, it could hit 100 per cent of GDP in just another five years
“A government debt burden of that [100 per cent] level, if sustained, would in Standard & Poor’s view be incompatible with a triple A rating,” as the risk rating agency stated last week.

I believe the risk posed by this debt is systemic and could do more damage to the economy than the recent financial crisis. To understand the size of the risk, take a look at the numbers that Standard and Poor’s considers. The deficit in 2019 is expected by the CBO to be $1,200bn (€859bn, £754bn). Income tax revenues are expected to be about $2,000bn that year, so a permanent 60 per cent across-the-board tax increase would be required to balance the budget. Clearly this will not and should not happen. So how else can debt service payments be brought down as a share of GDP?

Inflation will do it. But how much? To bring the debt-to-GDP ratio down to the same level as at the end of 2008 would take a doubling of prices. That 100 per cent increase would make nominal GDP twice as high and thus cut the debt-to-GDP ratio in half, back to 41 from 82 per cent. A 100 per cent increase in the price level means about 10 per cent inflation for 10 years. But it would not be that smooth – probably more like the great inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s with boom followed by bust and recession every three or four years, and a successively higher inflation rate after each recession.

Read entire article:

No comments:

Post a Comment

MARC FABER NEWS

NFE/1.0marc faber - Google Newshttp://news.google.com/news?gl=us&pz=1&ned=us&hl=en&q=marc+faberennews-feedback@google.com©2013 GoogleFri, 28 Jun 2013 00:51:38 GMTFri, 28 Jun 2013 00:51:38 GMTmarc faber - Google Newshttps://ssl.gstatic.com/news-static/img/logo/en_us/news.gifhttp://news.google.com/news?gl=us&pz=1&ned=us&hl=en&q=marc+faberDr. Doom? Marc Faber Sees Stock Buying Opportunity - CNBC.comhttp://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&fd=R&usg=AFQjCNGHsuxk-dDyhxcxnCl-sfCXfrBDzg&url=http://www.cnbc.com/id/100841125tag:news.google.com,2005:cluster=http://www.cnbc.com/id/100841125Tue, 25 Jun 2013 17:08:32 GMT

Moneycontrol.com

Dr. Doom? Marc Faber Sees Stock Buying Opportunity
CNBC.com
The dean of doom, Marc Faber, told CNBC on Tuesday that a variety of asset classes—including equities—may be worth buying for short-term gains. In the midst of market volatility on concerns over Federal Reserve tapering, he said, "Treasury bonds ...
Marc FaberMoneycontrol.com
Marc Faber aka Dr. Doom: S&P 500 Index Could Fall 20% To 30% EasilyETF Daily News (blog)
Dr Doom warns stocks are oversold but S&P readies for another dropCitywire.co.uk

all 7 news articles »
Marc Faber Forecasts 30% Stock Market Crash, Says Buy Gold - The Market Oraclehttp://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&fd=R&usg=AFQjCNHeIcgHV9wRbIf0mJuPEKrVTZpR4Q&url=http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article41119.htmltag:news.google.com,2005:cluster=http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article41119.htmlThu, 27 Jun 2013 15:40:52 GMT

Marc Faber Forecasts 30% Stock Market Crash, Says Buy Gold
The Market Oracle
The Fed's 'tapering' comments have ramped up market volatilaty and Faber gives some advice for short and long-term strategies. For example: ""The best course of action is to actually not buy anything, but rather to reduce positions on a rebound," Faber ...

Marc Faber: Bull in the short term, bear in the long term - MarketWatch (blog)http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&fd=R&usg=AFQjCNHfnXbptbLywfeYVmkyZmZ2DDp7HQ&url=http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/06/25/marc-faber-bull-in-the-short-term-bear-in-the-long-term/tag:news.google.com,2005:cluster=http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/06/25/marc-faber-bull-in-the-short-term-bear-in-the-long-term/Tue, 25 Jun 2013 12:43:25 GMT

Marc Faber: Bull in the short term, bear in the long term
MarketWatch (blog)
... so perhaps it's best left to someone who has historically said “sell.” Marc Faber, author of the ”The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report,” and often called “Dr. Doom” because of his bearish sentiment, says there are buying opportunities — at least in the ...

Marc Faber: Gold a possible canary in the deflation coalmine - MarketWatch (blog)http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&fd=R&usg=AFQjCNEdSfHdIZdAKgZSaeDMUqQz6Ac3lQ&url=http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/06/24/marc-faber-gold-a-possible-canary-in-the-deflation-coalmine/tag:news.google.com,2005:cluster=http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/06/24/marc-faber-gold-a-possible-canary-in-the-deflation-coalmine/Mon, 24 Jun 2013 14:53:27 GMT

Business Insider

Marc Faber: Gold a possible canary in the deflation coalmine
MarketWatch (blog)
Here's what Marc Faber, editor of Gloom Boom Doom report told MarketWatch in an email. “Maybe gold is signaling a deflationary collapse of all asset prices. If this were indeed the case I suppose I would rather own gold than government bonds, high ...
MARC FABER: The Way Things Are Going, Bernanke Will Have To Give Us 96 ...Business Insider
"Incredibly Bad Sentiment" Makes Gold & Bonds a Buy Says Marc Faber, as All ...FXstreet.com
“Sentiment on Gold and Bonds Incredibly Negative” – Marc Faber Predicts ...Gold and Silver Blog (blog)
Wall St. Cheat Sheet -Gold Seek
all 8 news articles »
Marc Faber Sees Further Downside - CNBC.comhttp://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&fd=R&usg=AFQjCNFjIRlyiY6AOMYxMkr6L_cy3PCHHA&url=http://www.cnbc.com/id/100833048tag:news.google.com,2005:cluster=http://www.cnbc.com/id/100833048Fri, 21 Jun 2013 03:06:42 GMT

Marc Faber Sees Further Downside
CNBC.com
China's factory output weakened to a 9-month low today, and financials saw a huge sell-off today, with the FM traders; and The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report's Marc Faber, shares his economic outlook. There's plenty of room for the stock market to decline ...
Marc Faber: More S&P downside, commodities 'horrible'…except goldMarketWatch (blog)

all 3 news articles »
Marc Faber says 'thanks' to Bernanke - MarketWatch (blog)http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&fd=R&usg=AFQjCNFw6FBq19Oa7Z-kgFqUTh6QhUwZIQ&url=http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/06/18/marc-faber-says-thanks-to-bernanke/tag:news.google.com,2005:cluster=http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/06/18/marc-faber-says-thanks-to-bernanke/Tue, 18 Jun 2013 19:33:27 GMT

Marc Faber says 'thanks' to Bernanke
MarketWatch (blog)
[An earlier version of this blog mistakenly attributed the comments to Marc Faber's blog. The original comments were made in an interview with Barron's on June 1. The comments were picked up Tuesday in a tracking blog that aggregates Faber's public ...

and more »
Dr. Doom Marc Faber: Don't Bet on New Market Highs - CNBC.comhttp://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&fd=R&usg=AFQjCNGx2ZJJjiUcIAY7pGO0Re_QDfyyYg&url=http://www.cnbc.com/id/100788714tag:news.google.com,2005:cluster=http://www.cnbc.com/id/100788714Tue, 04 Jun 2013 15:51:19 GMT

Dr. Doom Marc Faber: Don't Bet on New Market Highs
CNBC.com
Faber said large cap stocks like McDonald's, Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble and Wal-Mart "have most likely peaked." However, he thinks there are still stocks that show strength that could continue to appreciate "because all the money flows into fewer and ...

Marc Faber Is Glad He Owned Stocks, Even As He Warned Everyone Of Stock ... - Business Insiderhttp://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&fd=R&usg=AFQjCNH71e36wHy4eeVNx4RPd5hxby3MTw&url=http://www.businessinsider.com/marc-faber-owns-stocks-warns-of-doom-2013-6tag:news.google.com,2005:cluster=http://www.businessinsider.com/marc-faber-owns-stocks-warns-of-doom-2013-6Sun, 02 Jun 2013 17:06:05 GMT

Marc Faber Is Glad He Owned Stocks, Even As He Warned Everyone Of Stock ...
Business Insider
"People with assets are all doomed, because prices are grossly inflated globally for stocks, bonds, and collectibles," says the investment advisor in a new interview published in this week's Barron's. But Faber is the first to admit that at least the ...

and more »
Marc Faber notes liquidity squeeze depressing stocks but still buying gold - Gold Seekhttp://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&fd=R&usg=AFQjCNEQgrVW6FlfBnocMrK4PekR18WbBA&url=http://news.goldseek.com/PeterCooper/1371737040.phptag:news.google.com,2005:cluster=http://news.goldseek.com/PeterCooper/1371737040.phpThu, 20 Jun 2013 13:30:25 GMT

Marc Faber notes liquidity squeeze depressing stocks but still buying gold
Gold Seek
Famously contrarian in his approach, Dr. Faber is usually out of step with Wall Street but has an excellent reputation for calling the major market turns. He does not say he is shorting equities, though he notes emerging market equities and currencies ...

Cheerful Thoughts from Marc Faber - BullionVaulthttp://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&fd=R&usg=AFQjCNEAa_NvXEnALAQETGbirjKhJF6Zlw&url=http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/marc-faber-060420134tag:news.google.com,2005:cluster=http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/marc-faber-060420134Tue, 04 Jun 2013 20:10:21 GMT

Cheerful Thoughts from Marc Faber
BullionVault
SWISS-BORN Marc Faber, who at age 24 earned his PhD. in economics magna cum laude from the University of Zurich, has lived in Hong Kong nearly 40 years. He worked in New York, Zurich and Hong Kong for White Weld & Co., an investment bank ...

and more »
Google News